World Cup 2026: Potential ‘Dark Horses’

Spain head the outright market at 5.50, with France at 6.50 and England at 7.00, and Brazil and Argentina level on 9.00 round out the top five. Portugal and Germany follow at 13.00, and the prices lengthen quickly after that. That concentration is normal before a 48-team tournament, with the early money sitting on a short list of favourites. Below them sit a group of sides priced much longer who still carry the squad, form or draw to reach the latter stages. What follows is the case for each of them.

Netherlands, 21.00

Netherlands are the first name below the front seven. They come into the tournament unbeaten across their last 10, seven wins and three draws, with 30 goals scored and six conceded. The draw placed them at the top of Group F alongside Japan, Tunisia and Sweden, a section they are clear favourites to win. A side with that scoring record and a manageable group has a clean route into the second week, and an Opta rating of 88.7 puts them closer to the favourites than their price suggests.

Belgium, 34.00

Belgium are priced at 34.00 despite the most prolific recent record of any qualified side. Their last 10 brought 35 goals at an expected-goals rate of 2.36 a game, and they finished the run unbeaten. Group G pairs them with Iran, Egypt and New Zealand, with Iran the only side rated within reach of them. The questions over Belgium have long been at the back rather than in attack, and on these numbers the goals have not dried up.

Croatia, 81.00

Croatia are the longest price of the genuine contenders, which sits oddly against their tournament history. Finalists in 2018 and third in 2022, they have reached the latter stages of the last two World Cups, and their recent form holds up: eight wins from their last 10, a single defeat, 29 goals scored. The draw is the obstacle. Group L puts them alongside England, with Panama and Ghana making up the four. Second place behind England still carries them into the knockouts, and their record from there speaks for itself.

Morocco, 51.00

Morocco reached the semi-finals in 2022, the first African side to do so, and are priced at 51.00 to go deep again. Their last 10 returned six wins and just six goals conceded, the same defensive base that carried them through three years ago. Group C is the complication, with Brazil the seeded side, but Morocco sit clear of Scotland and Haiti for the second qualifying place. A team that has already shown it can win knockout football at this level starts each tournament with that in hand.

Japan, 51.00

Japan are the strongest of the Asian sides and matched at 51.00. Seven wins from their last 10 and an Opta rating of 81.2 leave them within range of the Netherlands at the top of Group F. Japan led both Germany and Spain at points during the 2022 tournament and carry the squad depth to trouble seeded opposition again. The last 16 looks the floor for them; the draw beyond it will decide how much further they go.

Three more with a heavier asterisk

Colombia top Group K on the Opta ratings, narrowly ahead of Portugal, and at 34.00 are priced to make the second week from a section that gives them a realistic group win. Uruguay sit second to Spain in Group H with the squad to win a knockout tie, though their recent form has been patchier than the rest of this list, four wins from their last 10. Norway carry the attacking talent to hurt anyone but drew the hardest section in the field, sharing Group I with France and Senegal, and the route alone explains a price of 26.00.

Where this leaves the market

None of these sides is favourite to lift the trophy on 19 July. The case for each is narrower: the squad, the form or the tournament record to reach the latter stages, at a price set well outside the seven names at the head of the market. As the favourites shorten through the build-up, these are the teams to measure against your own view of the field before the prices move.

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Outright prices reflect the most recent market snapshot (bet365, late April 2026). Confirm live prices before staking.